AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW -

Prime Minister Kevin. Rudd is on the cusp of realising his dream of establishing an Asia Pacific Community, despite an ugly start and with some likely assistance from a superpower.

And if such a community were achieved it would be Japan's triumph too. Tokyo, out of concern for a body to balance China's spectacular rise, has pushed a similar concept for most of the decade.

Rudd's aim when he unveiled the idea in 2008 was to have one overarching body which includes all the major countries of the Asia

Pacific and covers the full gamut of economic, security and strategic issues by 2020. Rudd argued that none of the existing architecture, including the Association of South-East Asian Nations and its extension groups or the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, included both the US and China.

Better - as power shifts from the Atlantic to the Asia Pacific - to set up a body at which to discuss mutual challenges such as economic problems, territorial disputes, resource and energy security, transnational crime and terrorism than to allow it to evolve.

Rudd's initial vision was criticised for being too prescriptive in mentioning the European Union as a model and failing to consult neighbouring countries. India, Indonesia and Singapore initially dismissed it out of hand. But Rudd adjusted his strategy - proposing something far less prescriptive at later international gatherings - suggesting the architecture could be new or could grow out of any existing regional body. It's a message Rudd has tirelessly pushed with regional leaders on bilateral visits and multilateral meetings. His envoy, former diplomat Dick Woolcott, has been clocking up thousands of frequent flyer points with visits to capitals in the Asia Pacific to rally support.

The most likely vehicle for realising Rudd's ambition would appear to be ASEAN's East Asia Summit (EAS), which includes the

10 ASEAN members - Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Burma - as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India and China.

Add the US and Russia and you have the ingredients of an Asia Pacific community.

The possibility is now very real because the US under Barack Obama has put renewed emphasis on engaging with South-East Asia.

The US moved quickly after Obama's election to sign the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Co-operation - a gesture interpreted as a potential precursor to joining the summit.

The change of heart in the US means there is now an expectation among ASEAN members that Washington will apply to join the EAS and if so this may open the way for Russia, which has been wanting to join.

Russia was peeved about not getting a mention in Rudd's original 2008 speech launching the concept, but has put aside this slight and told

Canberra it wants to be part of an Asia Pacific community. But the inclusion of the US and

Russia (the latter signed the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Co-operation in 2004) is not without hurdles. ASEAN sources suggest that were the US to apply it could meet opposition from countries such as Burma, Laos and Cambodia which are closely aligned with China. Given ASEAN is ruled by consensus, it would take only one country to block the move, but the Obama administration has even reached out to the generals of the military dictatorship in Burma in a shift from George Bush's policies of isolating the regime.

China favours engaging with the region through the ASEAN Plus Three grouping, which includes Japan and South Korea, so it, too, may not cruel the US move.

ASEAN sources suggest the most vigorous opposition to Russia's joining the EAS is likely to come from Japan which, although not a member of ASEAN, has considerable financial clout. Its relations with Russia have never really recovered from the Russo-Japanese War of 9.904-05 and a territorial dispute about the Kuril Islands. Japan was also a strong ally of the US during the Cold War.

Rudd will host a summit in Sydney in December for senior government officials, academics and opinion-makers from the region Fo give the concept a further push.

The fact that China, South Korea and Japan all offered to host the summit indicates how it has captured the imagination of the region. New Zealand, South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia have offer& some support publicly for a single overarching body.

The renewed engagement of the US with, South-East Asia will be in evidence next month when Obama holds a historic meeting with the leaders of the ASEAN countries in Singapore. Carl Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy, says the global financial crisis illustrates how quickly multilateralism can move.

"Few people would have predictei that the Group of 20 would become the premier global body dealing with financial challenges even 12 months ago," he says. 'And perhaps the same can be said for the Asia Pacific community." Thayer says that were the US to sign up to the EAS, it would b, "a game changer for tht region!

"Why would the US sign the Treaty of Amity and Co- operation unless it was serious about joining the orgar,:isation," he says. "Russia has expressed interest in joining the EAS but ASP-AN hags held off while looking to see what the United States will do."

Woolcott, who was former prime minister Bob Hawke's envoy when APEC was founded, says simply the need for one overarching body in the Asia Pacific is "an idea whose time has come".

Woolcott suggests the global financial crisis has simply brought forward the timetable for the establishment of such a body.

Russia has expressed interest in joining but ASEAN has held off while looking to see what the US will do.

"Australia's vision stems from a conviction that the shift in power from the Atlantic to the Asia Pacific will be accompanied by increased pressures and competition," Woolcott says. "It is better for the countries of the region to develop consciously an architecture to meet the challenges." But former academic and Liberal Senator Russell Trood says while he too accepts such a body could be quickly realised, Rudd should not hastily take the credit for it.

"Mr Rudd should have suggested the Asia Pacific Community evolve out of existing architecture in the first place, rather than wasting time proposing a new body and failing to consult the neighbours," he says.

"He could have saved Australia a lot of embarrassment."

By John Kerin